Surf Forecasting

[doclach]

A few folks have said to me along the way that they would like to polish up on their surf forecasting skills. Tonight it is on my mind as the Missus wanted to know why I was cussing at the synoptic chart on the TV weather forecast. I'm usually pretty calm - and funnily enough I knew exactly what it would show (having looked at every reference I know 4 times a day for the last week just in case I found something i missed b4) - but nearing the end (I bloody hope) of an incredibly flat flatspell, the frustration levels are through the the roof, and seeing a really majorly large High pressure cell with really spread out isobar lines (yet again) dominating off the Sydney coastline - enough was enough.

So at the end of my frustration, the best I can do is create a thread where the newer fellas to the ocean can throw some questions out and perhaps learn a little about the 'art' of surf forecasting - I've called it 'art' cos it is really a science, but there are so many variables compromising the exactitude of forecasting that IMO it is good to keep in the back of yer mind that it is an art - for me that reduces the chances of me going absolutley mental when all the info and charts say one thing, but when ya turn up , another thing is happening.... anyone been there done that?!? haha

I haven't spoken to the lads about this, well in passing, but not about attending to this thread, but a few likely fellas to give a reliable hand here are dudes like Southern Rewards, Ralphy and Brad - I know these buggers are always soaking up all the weird sh#t you have to in order to get a vibe on what is happening on the ocean. Never mind a lot of the 'lurkers' here who don't say much but drop in and check the place out a fair bit. If you quieter boogers with genuine knowledge and understanding of isobars, groundswell, fetch, continental shelves, Wave Analysis Models, Seasonal effects, Periods, Buoy readings etc etc could step out and chip in, that would be mega.

My local has some crew that tow for stand-ups like Ross Clarke-Jones and so on. A little while ago I got word they were off early the next morning for Shippies pumping 11m plus for a film gig for RCJ and a couple other solid riders - this means fueling up all sorts of cars and craft, a long drive organising film crews, accommodation and the big name riders involved and a bunch of other stuff that adds up to a lot of time and dollars. You are putting your balls on the line if you are the one calling the swell on a gig like this. Funny thing is, everyone confers and agrees, cos they can all read the buoys and charts.

So here is the thing - one of the things for boogers gaining respect amongst the surf crew is about familiarity and linguistic skill in chatting about the factors that influence the swells we are riding or going to ride.... it's too easy these days to just look up a surf forecast and rely on that. Personally I hate relying on other people for stuff - but that is just me - independent F#cker.

The main thing to remember here is that NO QUESTION IS TOO DUMB. If you miss or are uncertain of a basic principle it can make an already complex subject even more complicated. Remember there is massive computer modeling on this stuff that still gets massive inconsistencies... so ask away... and please be patient in waiting for replies, there are some pretty big pools of knowledge hanging around the place and it is well worth waiting to hear what they have to say - ya never know what you might find out....

[Comptee]

I've been wanting to get into this I just usually check Buoyweather or watch the 6pm news and look at the synoptic charts and try to work that out before checking buoyweather

any tips doc ?

[doclach]

I've been wanting to get into this I just usually check Buoyweather or watch the 6pm news and look at the synoptic charts and try to work that out before checking buoyweather

any tips doc ?

k... so first thing, dont ask someone specifically - you fellas wouldnt believe the depth of knowledge floating around this place.

TIP: find something SPECIFIC you want to know about - then ask about that. This is a massive mofo subject, there are pages and pages on the internet. I wrote a quick spiel on 'fetch' in the ocean and marine science thread a while ago, but there wasnt much response, so not sure how interested you guys are in it all, but thought I'd put it our there.

[brad]

I remember hearing something like water temps in the oceans have a big influence on creating storms which create swells, and allot of people use water temp weather models to forecast what the ocean is going to do. If any one can describe the theories behind this too me that would be cool.

Looking at charts and all the resources on the net is one of my favourite things about surfing its like gambling sometimes... Especially when you hit the road or ditch work/school or your girl for a sesh and its all worth it. I hope this thread goes off you can always learn from the ocean and from talking to other people that base there lives around it. Knowledge is power !!

[lewy]

3 items that are essential to basic forecasting; Swell charts (look at the one i put up in the WA thread in territory), How to read a synoptic chart (best for winds), and know your tides. Different breaks rely on different tides.
Like Brad said, it is always hit and miss. But when you make a hit and your fave break... yeeeeww!

[JonoIsMad.com]

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/Students_Teac ... sure.shtml

pure gold from the government, so its deffinantly going to be wrong

this might answer you kinda question brad....
water temps have something to do with this

[southern_rewards]

You can get all the info you need from synoptic chart alone.

Another thing thats good to watch when your actually in the water, is the sky, and the changes in clouds. you can tell alot by what clouds are doing.

Knowing your tides is essential, like knowing it down to the 0.1 mark. i know of a few spots that most people only aurf at high tide, but if you go there on low tides its better, one spot anything above a 0.4 low tide and its still surfable, but no one else knows, its all about trial and error... and sometimes, bleeding

[ralphy]

As Southern has said everything can be found by learning how to read the synoptic charts. Once you learn how to read these you will always get an accurate surf report.

If any of you have any questions, fire away, i will try to answer them. 2 years of my degree was spent learning how to read synoptic charts & predict, swell, tides etc & the affects that these things have on beaches, reefs, points etc.

I will again agree with Southern on the tide thing. Tide plays probably the biggest part in "good surf", other than the actual swell. Ever noticed how the surf seems to become more consistent as the tide pushes in? Or how the surf can go from fun to frustratingly shit in the space of half an hour? All to do with the tides

One way to make sure you get consistently good surf is to keep a surf journal. After your surf, write down what the conditions were like (eg- wave height, bank condition etc) and then use the net to check what the local weather conditions were like at the same time you were surfing (tide level, swell height/direction/period, wind direction etc). This way you will soon be able to work out what the best conditions are to surf certain waves. Better surf guaranteed! Oh if you surf beachies, take note of the wind & ocean conditions 3-5 days prior to your surf, it will tell you a lot about how the banks form on that particular beach.

[captain6230]

ok. question.
how do good banks form and what destroys a good bank?

[southern_rewards]

a certain beach down the coast thats offshore in NE winds, only gets good banks if the winds been NE for atleast 5 days before a swell hits it. onshores and big swells often kill banks.

[ralphy]

Banks are made/moved/formed by the combination of winds, waves, tides, currents and any formations along the beach such as headlands etc. Its a pretty complicated science that no one really knows to much exact info about.

For instance on my local beaches (this is from personal experience and may not be correct), the sand moves in a northerly direction under the influence of the predominant SW winds/N current.
This combined with the predominant SW/W swell direction helps to move the sand up along the beaches.
Rips form that flow back out to sea from a NE/E direction off the beach help to cut up the continual sand movement into particular banks.

There are so many variables when dealing with bank formation. It would make a pretty cool PHD study i think.

[P.G@tibir]

hey brad.. apprently if the water temp is hot and outside is cold-ish or cold and vice versa, the contrasting temps can cause occurences such as storms, cyclones, tsunamis and shit, but that is the same with weather storms, yeha i think thats true

[brad]

cheers guys I'll look into them

[tom__]

all i no is that Low pressure system most of the time means shitty weather and not bad swell weather it be not rideable its there!

[meaksy]

Here's a link to a swell forcasting model.

http://www.lajollasurf.org/gblpac.html

it predicts up to a week away in 6 hr increments so it may help some of you with your forcasting if you can be bothered to look at the predictions of the model then match them up to whats happening at your beaches. Remember its only a model so the further ahead in days you look the more likely conditions are to change.